NC-1: Don Davis (D) v Laurie Buckhout (R) v Tom Bailey (L)
Polls close 7:30 pm ET
Chance Davis wins
n/a
No votes counted yet. This is the model's starting estimate.
Current count
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Pct. |
|---|
* Incumbent
Results by county
Estimated final margin
n/a
Votes counted
n/a
Estimated share counted
Estimate by county
The model's estimate of the final margin in each county, with the range of likely outcomes. Margins are Democrat minus Republican, in points.
Blue is the part of a range where Davis leads, red where Buckhout leads.
Estimate of the final margin over time
No history yet.
Estimate over time as a table
| Time (ET) | Estimate | 50% range | 95% range | Reported margin | Share reported |
|---|
What's powering the estimate right now?
Who is ahead of the benchmark
The benchmark is how each county would vote in an exactly even race, based on past results and compared like for like on the votes counted so far.
Chance Davis wins over time
No history yet.
History as a table
| Time (ET) | Chance Davis wins | Estimated margin | Votes counted |
|---|
By vote method
| Method | Counted | Expected | Margin | 2024 baseline |
|---|
Margins are Democrat minus Republican, in percentage points.
By county
Select a column heading to sort.
Early electorate
Who has voted early and by mail, from the state voter file; not how they voted.
Method note
This page shows a model estimate. It is not an official result and it is not an AP call.
Results are unofficial until certified. Vote counts come from the North Carolina State Board of Elections.
The page checks for new data regularly, and the data file can lag the state feed by a few minutes.