Predictions

On this page, I attempt to “pre-register” predictions by committing to making them publicly here. I assign each prediction a confidence level and a resolution date.¹ As they resolve, I’ll come back and turn this into a scorecard! I’m committing to using this as an exercise to highlight my failures as well as my successes, and as part of this public exercise you can verify things via the page’s change history.

All predictions

Click a column header to sort by that field. I have a full predictions table that includes what criteria are used for resolving predictions, as well as some short notes for/against each prediction. These are both my assessment of the general probabilities, and then my personal confidence in my own analysis, which I call effort. This should serve as a pseudo-weight on how much I would actually stand behind a call or be open to updating. A quick take is something I’m making on vibes or a gut check, considered generally means some amount of rough BOTECs without modeling, and deep dives are things I base on original analysis or modeling.

TopicAll topics

Footnotes

1. Sometimes may be an approximate date.