Predictions: full table
This page has every prediction I made with the criteria I use for resolving predictions, as well as some short notes for/against each prediction. See the predictions page for the general summary. You can sort by clicking column headers. Remember, these are both my assessment of the general probabilities, and then my personal confidence in my own analysis, which I call effort. This should serve as a pseudo-weight on how much I would actually stand behind a call or be open to updating. A quick take is something I’m making on vibes or a gut check, considered generally means some amount of rough BOTECs without modeling, and deep dives are things I base on original analysis or modeling.
| Prediction | Probability (%) | Effort | Basis | Made | Resolves by | Outcome | Resolves Yes if | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott will run ahead of Ken Paxton in Texas. | 90 | Considered | NYT/Siena crosstabs; ticket-splitting patterns | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …D-minus-R margin in TX-GOV is lower than in TX-SEN. | Case against: ticket-splitting is quite low; Talarico persuasion could be overstated. Case for: Implied in NYT polling; incumbency, Paxton is Paxton. |
| Rob Sand will run ahead of Josh Turek in Iowa. | 90 | Considered | NYT/Siena crosstabs; ticket-splitting patterns | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …D-minus-R margin in IA-GOV is higher than in IA-SEN. | Case against: only polled in one(?) instance; Senate races have nationalized so Turek could close the gap in late movement. Case for: Implied in NYT polling; more ticket-splitting in non-federal races; xtabs imply lean Republican undecideds break Sand. |
| Hannah Pingree will run ahead of Troy Jackson in Maine. | 95 | Considered | NYT/Siena crosstabs; ticket-splitting patterns | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …D-minus-R margin in ME-GOV is higher than in ME-SEN. | Case against: Polling error? Case for: Pingree is leaps and bounds ahead in relative polling; Collins-specific dynamic may drag Jackson down relative to state lean. |
| Darline Graham will win SC-SEN. | 70 | Considered | Polling averages; own polling-error analysis | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Darline Graham wins SC-SEN. | Case against: NYT/Siena tie poll where majority thinks Graham has no experience; Andrews could win independents; potential large blue polling error. Case for: Trump +18 state; Graham narrowly leads polling averages; close red state polls tend to overstate Dems. |
| Pete Ricketts will win NE-SEN. | 70 | Considered | Polling averages; own polling-error analysis | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Pete Ricketts wins NE-SEN. | Case against: Osborn maintains or exceeds 2024 levels of x-party appeal; leads in some October polls; blue polling miss. Case for: Trump +20 state; Ricketts narrowly leads polling averages, Osborne underperformed 2024 polls and 2026 leads are mostly internals/partisan polls. |
| Republican Senate candidates will beat their final polling averages in at least 3 of AK, IA, KS, OH and TX. | 60 | Considered | Own polling-error analysis, 1998-2022 | 2026-11-03 | 2026-12-31 | Open | …in at least 3 of the 5 races, the certified D-minus-R margin is lower than the Silver Bulletin average margin was on 2026-11-02. | My own analysis: close midterm Senate polls in red states underestimated Dems. Previous calls assume Republicans beat polling averages by about 2 points in each race. |
| Bobby Pulido will defeat Monica De La Cruz in TX-15. | 55 | Deep dive | Own reversion scenarios on district results; Cook rating | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Bobby Pulido is elected in TX-15. | Case against: NYT/Siena implies limited Latino reversion; incumbency. Case for: 2018-2024 swing powered by low-propensity voters who may stay home; even minor Latino reversion flips the seat. |
| Brandon Herrera will win TX-23. | 68 | Deep dive | Own reversion scenarios on district results; Cook rating | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Brandon Herrera is elected in TX-23. | Case against: open seat in a blue year; more competitive the bluer the state environment. Case for: Small 2018-2024 movement relative to the state, so Hispanic reversion might be muted here. |
| Bob Harvie will defeat Brian Fitzpatrick in PA-01. | 58 | Considered | NYT/Inquirer/Siena district poll; district lean | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Bob Harvie is elected in PA-01. | Case against: Fitzpatrick doggedly survives. Case for: Harris district in a bluer national environment; Harvie leads polls narrowly; incumbent personal vote may not survive the wavey environment. |
| The last seven battleground NYT/Siena polls will have a smaller absolute error than the 2026-11-02 Silver Bulletin averages. | 35 | Considered | NYT/Siena methodology and crosstabs; Noah Wyhof-Rudnick’s recall analysis; own polling-error thoughts. | 2026-11-03 | 2026-12-31 | Open | …NYT/Siena’s final margins in AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, and TX will have a smaller mean absolute error than the 2026-11-02 Silver Bulletin averages. | Essentially a test of my problems with recall weighting, which other pollsters are not letting run Slack. NYT predicts a bluer environment. Case for: Trump deniers. Case against: unfair comparing one poll to an average; NYT is bluer than CW in 5/7 states so relies on a pro-D miss. |
| Mike Lawler will lose reelection in NY-17. | 60 | Quick take | Average Cook/Inside Elections/Sabato rating; Split Ticket model | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …the Democratic nominee is elected in NY-17. | Case against: ratings average Tilt R; Lawler has run well ahead of the top of the ticket. Case for: Split Ticket has the Democrat 71%; Harris-adjacent suburban seat in a blue year. |
| Matt Dunlap will win ME-02. | 55 | Quick take | Average Cook/Inside Elections/Sabato rating; Split Ticket model | 2026-11-03 | 2026-12-31 | Open | …Matt Dunlap is elected in ME-02. | Case against: ratings average Lean R; LePage is well known and the seat voted Trump. Case for: Split Ticket has it near even (D 45%); blue environment; Golden-style crossover appeal. |
| David Valadao will lose reelection in CA-22. | 62 | Quick take | Average Cook/Inside Elections/Sabato rating; Split Ticket model | 2026-11-03 | 2026-12-31 | Open | …the Democratic nominee is elected in CA-22. | Case against: Valadao has survived bad years before; Latino turnout drop-off. Case for: ratings average Tilt D; Split Ticket has the Democrat 62%. |
| Derrick Van Orden will lose reelection in WI-03. | 60 | Quick take | Average Cook/Inside Elections/Sabato rating; Split Ticket model | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Rebecca Cooke is elected in WI-03. | Case against: Split Ticket has it close to a coin flip (Cooke 54%). Case for: ratings average Lean D; rematch with a stronger challenger in a blue year. |
| Scott Weiner will win election in CA-11. | 80 | Considered | Public polling; modeled turnout | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Scott Weiner is elected in CA-11. | Case against: Pelosi endorsement could sway undecideds. Case for: primary results suggest Weiner has enough support among progressives, polling lead, fundraising advantage. |
| Mike Thompson will win election in CA-04. | 90 | Considered | Private polling; bad modeling | 2026-11-03 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Mike Thompson is elected in CA-04. | Case against: small sample survey, undecideds + weak partisans could break heavy for Jones, who needs to win Rs at about a 3-1 rate, Jones has a cash advantage and Thompson was held to 40 in the primary. Case for: incumbency, environment, evidence from survey suggests Republicans see Jones as further left. |
| Nithya Raman will be elected Mayor of Los Angeles. | 65 | Quick take | Intuition; IGS polling as a benchmark | 2026-11-02 | 2026-12-31 | Open | …Raman wins the LA Mayoral election. | Mostly vibes. Raw data in IGS polling for some benchmarks. |
| Kevin Kiley will lose reelection in CA-06. | 65 | Quick take | Intuition; fundamentals and national environment | 2026-11-02 | 2026-12-31 | Open | …Richard Pan is elected in CA-06. | Entirely vibes. Very little public polling, but fundamentals, projected national environment and decline in ticket splitting suggest this one. |
| Roy Cooper will win election in NC-SEN. | 85 | Quick take | Polling averages; fundamentals | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Roy Cooper is elected in NC-SEN. | See: public polling, fundamentals, etc. Hedged against total polling miss. |
| Peggy Flanagan will win election in MN-SEN. | 99 | Quick take | Polling averages; fundamentals | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Peggy Flanagan is elected in MN-SEN. | See: public polling, fundamentals, etc. |
| Peggy Flanagan will win MN-SEN by at least a 9 point margin. | 70 | Deep dive | Own calculation against a 2018 benchmark | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Peggy Flanagan wins at least 9 percentage points more of the vote than Michele Tafoya. | Assuming a 2018-like environment which is possibly conservative, Flanagan would have to underperform Klobuchar by more than 15 points. |
| Josh Shapiro will win election in PA-GOV. | 99 | Quick take | Polling averages; fundamentals | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Josh Shapiro is elected in PA-GOV. | See: public polling, fundamentals, etc. |
| Josh Shapiro will win at least 60 percent of the vote in PA-GOV. | 75 | Considered | Public polls; 2018 benchmark | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Josh Shapiro wins greater than or equal to 60 percent of the vote in PA-GOV. | Would mark a mild improvement over 2018. Most public polls are old but have Shapiro around 58. |
| Mary Peltola will win AK-SEN. | 55 | Considered | NYT/Siena crosstabs; polling average | 2026-11-02 | 2026-12-31 | Open | …Mary Peltola wins AK-SEN. | Case against: one of the narrower polling leads; state has been red at other levels. Case for: environment, candidate, lopsided Gov race. |
| Troy Jackson will win ME-SEN. | 60 | Considered | NYT/Siena crosstabs; polling average | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Troy Jackson wins ME-SEN. | Case against: Collins Derangement syndrome, people don’t like nominee switcheroo, Jackson has worse favorables. Case for: environment, state Presidential lean. |
| Sherrod Brown will win OH-SEN. | 55 | Considered | NYT/Siena crosstabs; polling average | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Sherrod Brown wins OH-SEN. | Case against: State leans red, Husted decreasing polling lead. Case for: former incumbent, environment, Husted unfavorables quite high. |
| James Talarico will win TX-SEN. | 60 | Considered | NYT/Siena crosstabs; polling average | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …James Talarico wins TX-SEN. | Case against: Polling is too bullish on persuasion, rural white turnout surges in ED vote. Case for: environment, polling, persuasion, differential Latino turnout. |
| Abdul El-Sayed will win MI-SEN. | 75 | Considered | NYT/Siena crosstabs; polling average | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Abdul El-Sayed wins MI-SEN. | Case against: Didn’t condemn Hasan Piker, divided primary leads to high R persuasion and stymies D turnout, November surprise could lead to massive ED asymmetry. Case for: environment, polling asymmetry. |
| Adam Hamilton will win KS-SEN. | 50 | Considered | NYT/Siena crosstabs; own polling-error analysis | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Adam Hamilton wins KS-SEN. | Case against: Trump +16 state, the reddest on this list; close polls in red states have tended to overstate the Democrat; Libertarian at 4% could fade. Case for: polling average Hamilton +3, NYT/Siena Hamilton +5; Hamilton net favorable, Marshall net unfavorable. |
| Ashley Hinson will win IA-SEN. | 60 | Considered | NYT/Siena crosstabs; own polling-error analysis | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Ashley Hinson wins IA-SEN. | Case against: polling average Turek +1; Turek better liked than Hinson; Sand leading the governor race implies room for ticket-splitting. Case for: Trump +13 state; undecideds lean Republican by party ID and 2024 vote; same poll has Republicans +4 on the generic House ballot; close polls in red states have tended to overstate the Democrat. |
| Democrats will hold 50 or fewer Senate seats. | 41 | Considered | Own simulation from race-level calls | 2026-11-02 | 2027-01-03 | Open | …the Senate Democratic caucus (Democrats plus independents who caucus with them) has 50 or fewer members when the 120th Congress convenes. | Implied by race-level predictions above hedging for correlated polling error. |
| Democrats will hold exactly 51 Senate seats. | 14 | Considered | Own simulation from race-level calls | 2026-11-02 | 2027-01-03 | Open | …the Senate Democratic caucus (Democrats plus independents who caucus with them) has exactly 51 members when the 120th Congress convenes. | Implied probability. |
| Democrats will hold exactly 52 Senate seats. | 14 | Considered | Own simulation from race-level calls | 2026-11-02 | 2027-01-03 | Open | …the Senate Democratic caucus (Democrats plus independents who caucus with them) has exactly 52 members when the 120th Congress convenes. | Seat-count bin; see the 50-or-fewer entry. |
| Democrats will hold exactly 53 Senate seats. | 13 | Considered | Own simulation from race-level calls | 2026-11-02 | 2027-01-03 | Open | …the Senate Democratic caucus (Democrats plus independents who caucus with them) has exactly 53 members when the 120th Congress convenes. | Seat-count bin; see the 50-or-fewer entry. |
| Democrats will hold 54 or more Senate seats. | 18 | Considered | Own simulation from race-level calls | 2026-11-02 | 2027-01-03 | Open | …the Senate Democratic caucus (Democrats plus independents who caucus with them) has 54 or more members when the 120th Congress convenes. | Seat-count bin; see the 50-or-fewer entry. |
| Proposition 40 will fail in California. | 55 | Quick take | Early-vote polling; status quo bias | 2026-11-02 | 2026-12-31 | Open | …fewer than 50 percent of voters back ‘Yes’ on CA Proposition 40. | Already-voted respondents are majority-no, status quo bias, spending disadvantage. |
| Shomari Figures will win reelection in AL-02. | 55 | Quick take | Intuition (Callais backlash) | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | …Shomari Figures is elected in AL-02. | Entirely vibes. While Figures is behind in public polling I suspect this is a prime seat for Callais backlash to have an effect. |
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