Predictions
On this page, I attempt to “pre-register” predictions by committing to making them publicly here. I assign each prediction a confidence level and a resolution date.1 As they resolve, I’ll come back and keep a scorecard. I don’t edit entries, so I’m committing to showcasing my failures as well as my successes, and you can verify things via the page’s change history.
All predictions
| Topic | Prediction | Confidence (%) | Made | Resolves by | Outcome | Resolves Yes if |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elections | Nithya Raman will be elected Mayor of Los Angeles. | 65 | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Resolves Yes if Raman wins the LA Mayoral election. |
| Elections | Kevin Kiley will lose reelection in CA-03. | 65 | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Resolves Yes if Richard Pan is elected in CA-03. |
| Elections | Roy Cooper will win election in NC-SEN. | 80 | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Resolves Yes if Roy Cooper is elected in NC-SEN. |
| Elections | Peggy Flanagan will win election in MN-SEN. | 85 | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Resolves Yes if Peggy Flanagan is elected in MN-SEN. |
| Elections | Peggy Flanagan will win MN-SEN by at least a 9 point margin. | 85 | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-15 | Open | Resolves Yes if Peggy Flanagan wins at least 9 percentage points more of the vote than Michele Tafoya. |
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Footnotes
Sometimes may be an approximate date.↩︎